Long-Run & Near-Term Perspectives on the US Economy-Session recording

Video Transcription

Video Summary

The keynote speaker, Jim Dolmas, discussed various economic trends, including demographics, productivity, interest rates, and inflation, outlining their impacts on the U.S. economy, both pre and post-pandemic. He highlighted the unique nature of the recession and recovery associated with the pandemic, emphasizing the significant fiscal response and the challenges with supply chains and labor market tightness. Dolmas also touched on the projections made by the FOMC for the future, indicating stable unemployment rates, a focus on returning inflation to 2%, and the expectation of low long-run interest rates. While discussing the interplay between GDP and productivity, Dolmas explained how deviations from potential output can occur within shorter time frames, leading to fluctuations in economic performance. Finally, he acknowledged the limitations of predicting the long-run effects of factors like increased unionization on the economy.

Keywords

Jim Dolmas

economic trends

demographics

productivity

interest rates

inflation

pandemic

FOMC projections

GDP and productivity