Long-Run & Near-Term Perspectives on the US Economy-Slide handout

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The document by Jim Dolmas from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides insights into the longer-run and near-term perspectives on the U.S. economy. It covers topics such as pre-pandemic trends including demographics, productivity, interest rates, and inflation, as well as unique aspects of the recent recession and recovery. The U.S. population is getting older with slowing labor force growth and productivity. Interest rates have been declining since the 1980s due to lower inflation. The pandemic led to a unique economic cycle with a short recession, massive fiscal response, and shifts in consumption patterns. Inflation surged, leading to central banks raising rates rapidly. The current snapshot shows moderate economic growth, declining unemployment, stable inflation, and wage growth. Looking ahead, the FOMC projects softer growth, slightly higher unemployment, and gradual inflation improvements. Continued low trend GDP growth is expected due to aging demographics and slow labor force growth. Productivity gains could accelerate with technology advancements like AI. The Fed aims to stabilize inflation, and long-run interest rates depend on various factors. The Dallas Fed Economics provides valuable analysis and research on national, international, and regional economic trends.

Keywords

Jim Dolmas

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. economy

pre-pandemic trends

demographics

productivity

interest rates

inflation

economic cycle

FOMC projections